A model of foot-and-mouth disease transmission and detection within a U.S. beef feedlot

Abstract

Mathematical modeling is a tool to project the impact of a potential epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in disease-free countries. Most published models of FMD spread in the U.S. focus on farm to farm transmission and represent the farm as a homogenous unit. We developed a model of FMD transmission dynamics and clinical manifestation within a U.S. beef feedlot, incorporating typical feedlot layout, production management, and animal demographics. We used the model to assess the time to detection on the feedlot based on varying clinical FMD prevalence detection thresholds. We also estimated the impact of stopping movement of cattle to hospital pens following detection on the within-feedlot FMD outbreak.